The UN has issued a stark warning that global greenhouse gas emissions have reached record levels. Current national pledges remain insufficient, setting the planet on a trajectory toward 2.3–2.5°C of warming by 2100, well above the 1.5°C safety threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement.
The World’s Climate Pledge in Peril, says UN
The main goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global average temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C To achieve this, countries commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reaching “net zero” in the second half of the century, and helping less developed nations adapt to climate change through financial and technical support.
Scientists have repeatedly warned that surpassing 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels could trigger severe climate disruptions, including accelerating sea level rise, more intense heatwaves, and irreversible biodiversity loss. Recent global reports indicate that current emission trends are moving the world past this critical threshold.
Recent data shows a slight decrease in global emissions for early 2025 compared to the previous year, though atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to reach record highs. Global average temperatures are projected to be the second or third warmest on record for 2025, with 2024 being the warmest year on record. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 indicates that current pledges are insufficient to limit warming to the Paris Agreement goal, projecting a rise of 2.3-2.5°C based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Key Findings of the UN Report
The sixteenth edition of the Emissions Gap Report finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.6-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year’s report.
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, temperature predictions have fallen from 3-3.5°C. The required low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available. Wind and solar energy development is booming, lowering deployment costs. This means the international community can accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so. However, delivering faster cuts would require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, delivering a massive increase in support to developing countries, and redesigning the international financial architecture.
The report finds that this overshoot must be limited through faster and bigger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize climate risks and damages and keep returning to 1.5°C by 2100 within the realms of possibility – although doing so will be extremely challenging. Every fraction of a degree avoided means lower losses for people and ecosystems, lower costs, and less reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal techniques to return to 1.5°C by 2100.
Reactions and Expert Commentary
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has repeatedly issued urgent warnings, often describing major climate reports as critical alarms.He has called the findings of various UN climate reports “another strong wake-up call” to the world, emphasizing the increasing level of deadly risk facing human life and economies.
In October 2025, Guterres stated: “One thing is already clear: we will not be able to contain the global warming below 1.5C in the next few years”. He added that humanity has “missed the 1.5C climate target” and must “change course now”.
Climate scientists and activists frequently highlight the danger of “irreversible tipping points”.Scientists warn that ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest are at risk of reaching an irreversible tipping point, where large parts could turn into savannah, drastically altering the planet’s water and oxygen cycles.
An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) co-chair noted that “Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5°C or higher, increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems”.
Reports indicate that while new climate pledges would reduce expected global emissions, these reductions are far below what is needed to align with the 1.5°C or 2°C pathways, highlighting a significant “emissions gap”. Global coalitions continue to push for stronger national climate plans (NDCs) due to the recognized “implementation gap” between pledges and current policies.
Expected Impacts of 2.3–2.5°C Warming
A global temperature increase of 2.3–2.5°C above pre-industrial levels would significantly intensify extreme weather events, leading to widespread displacement, severe food and water insecurity, and major economic and health crises. This trajectory acutely threatens global climate justice, as developing nations, which contributed the least to the crisis, bear a disproportionate share of the impacts and lack the resources for adequate adaptation.
The current warming trend threatens global climate justice, hitting poorer nations hardest due to limited resources and fragile infrastructure. Developing countries, often in warmer or coastal regions, face severe climate disasters with minimal adaptive capacity and inadequate coping mechanisms. Those most affected by climate change have contributed least to emissions, while wealthier nations remain better equipped to adapt and recover. Climate change deepens existing inequalities, worsening poverty, food insecurity, and economic instability across vulnerable communities worldwide.
Limited finances and technology restrict developing nations’ ability to invest in renewable energy and adaptation, reinforcing cycles of vulnerability.
Rising seas endanger small island states, threatening their land, heritage, and survival as global warming exceeds the 2.3–2.5°C trajectory.
The window to act is rapidly closing, but it hasn’t shut yet. Every emission reduced, every forest protected, and every clean energy project launched brings the world a step closer to the Paris dream of a livable Earth.
For more such informative articles stay tuned at The World Times.
