As Oslo prepares to announce the 2025 Nobel Peace winner, President Trump’s campaign for recognition faces steep odds despite diplomatic claims.
President Donald Trump stands at a crossroads of diplomacy and recognition as the Norwegian Nobel Committee prepares to announce Friday’s Peace Prize winner. The 79-year-old leader has transformed his pursuit of the coveted award into a high-stakes campaign that mirrors his political career — bold, controversial, and divisive.
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Trump’s journey toward Nobel consideration began during his first presidency but gained unprecedented momentum in 2025. Multiple world leaders nominated him for the prize, creating a diplomatic chorus of support. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led the charge, followed by governments from Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Rwanda, and Cambodia.
The nominations stem from Trump’s self-proclaimed role as “The Peace President”. His administration credits him with brokering peace agreements across multiple conflicts. The White House lists achievements spanning from the Azerbaijan–Armenia accord to the Cambodia–Thailand border resolution.
Trump’s Nobel Peace Legacy
Most significantly, Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to his 20-point Gaza peace plan just days before the Nobel announcement. Both parties reportedly accepted the initial phase, which includes hostage releases and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
Trump’s Pakistan diplomacy particularly boosted his Nobel narrative. Following the May 2025 India–Pakistan conflict, Pakistan nominated Trump for his “decisive diplomatic intervention”. The administration secured trade agreements and military cooperation with Islamabad, though experts question claims about Pakistani oil reserves.
However, Trump’s Nobel prospects face significant headwinds. Betting markets place his chances between two to four percent. Polymarket shows him tied with climate activist Greta Thunberg at these minimal odds.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms lead most prediction markets at 25–28 percent, followed by Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Humanitarian organizations and international courts rank higher than Trump across multiple platforms.
What are the Nobel Experts saying?
Experts remain skeptical of Trump’s Nobel credentials. Nina Graeger from Oslo’s Peace Research Institute argues Trump’s record contradicts Nobel principles. His withdrawal from international organizations, trade wars with allies, and threats against Greenland undermine peace-building efforts.
The Nobel Committee emphasizes a complete personality assessment, not isolated achievements. Trump’s “America First” policies and divisive rhetoric complicate his candidacy despite diplomatic successes.
Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen predicts Trump won’t win this year but suggests 2026 remains possible. The committee traditionally favors sustained, verifiable peace contributions over politically charged campaigns.
Trump himself expresses uncertainty about his chances. “Perhaps they’ll find a reason not to give it to me,” he told reporters Wednesday. This defensive posture reflects his awareness of long odds despite public confidence.
The 338 nominees for 2025 — 244 individuals and 94 organizations — represent the highest competition in recent years. The committee keeps nominations confidential for fifty years, maintaining institutional independence from political pressure.
As Friday’s 11:00 AM CEST (2:30 PM IST) announcement approaches, Trump’s Nobel quest exemplifies modern diplomacy’s complexities. Whether his peace claims translate into Nobel recognition remains Oslo’s closely guarded secret.
The outcome will either vindicate Trump’s diplomatic legacy or reinforce critics’ views that sustainable peace requires more than headlines and handshake deals.
Stay tuned with The World Times for latest updates.
